In the future of commercial space travel, will there be multiple major providers or one top dog?
A: [It depends] on the decision that the government makes in August. There are three competitors who are in a fairly mature state of design. [Editor’s note: Those three are Boeing, SpaceX, and Sierra Nevada.] So you’re looking likely at one or perhaps two or perhaps all three being given a substantial amount of money to go and mature their systems even further. The thinking on the street right now is that there’s going to be one and a half or two full awards. Two full awards is easy to understand. The government would underwrite the development of two contractors all the way through to demonstrated human spaceflight to low earth orbit.
Now the next question is: [If] Boeing doesn’t get an award, what is it going to do? I’ll just give you the answer. The truth is, Boeing doesn’t know. The government’s portion of the investment is pretty substantial. Without that, we would have to raise that capital from private sources."